Reports: State Removes Too Many Children from Homes,Needs Better Help for Delinquent Girls Florida Policy News, July 24, 2006 Eight years after Kayla McKean was killed by her father, setting in motion one of Florida's worst child-welfare crises, the state continues to be gripped by a ''foster care panic'' that causes investigators to destroy thousands of struggling families unnecessarily, a new report says. (Report: State care of kids still shaky, Miami Herald) In a 24-page report released Tuesday, the Virginia-based National Coalition for Child Protection Reform blasted Florida's child welfare system for wrongly removing thousands of children from their parents, flooding an already weary social service system and causing lifelong trauma to children. ''Contrary to the common stereotype, most parents who lose their children to foster care are neither brutally abusive nor hopelessly addicted,'' says the report, written by the agency's executive director, Richard Wexler. 'Far more common are cases in which a family's poverty has been confused with child `neglect.' '' Officials at the Department of Children & Families in Tallahassee on Tuesday dismissed the notion of a foster-care panic, as they have done in prior years when the NCCPR has issued reports critical of the state. 'The often-difficult decision on whether to remove a child from a home is based on the best possible information available, not out of `panic,' as the report suggests,'' said DCF spokesman Tim Bottcher. ``Contrary to the report, the vast majority of child-abuse investigations do not result in removals.'' Bottcher said that the number of children in out-of-home care in Florida has declined by 8.5 percent since budget year 2001-2002 -- at the same time that the total population of children in the state increased by more than 8 percent. ''This means children in out-of-home care, as a proportion of total number of children in Florida, has declined by more than 15 percent over the last four years,'' Bottcher said in a prepared statement. For decades, child welfare experts have fallen largely into two camps: supporters of the ''family preservation'' model who favor allowing children to remain with struggling families unless they are threatened by severe abuse or neglect, and those who insist that the system should err on the side of child safety, even if that means uprooting families. Wexler has been one of the nation's most ardent supporters of family preservation, a movement that has gained momentum in several states and that emphasizes removing children from their parents only as a last resort. Florida's foster care ''panic'' began in late 1998 after Kayla McKean's father led Lake County police and a thousands volunteers on a fruitless search for his missing daughter in the Ocala National Forest during the Thanksgiving weekend, the report says. Richard Adams later admitted he beat Kayla to death. The next year, when a Broward County juvenile judge, Kathleen Kearney, was tapped by Gov. Jeb Bush to head DCF, the number of children removed from their parents climbed 50 percent from the year before, to 21,118. By 2005, the number of children removed by DCF rose to 22,323, its highest level, Wexler says. In some DCF districts, the removal of children continues to soar. The number of children taken into foster care in the Fort Myers area has increased by 50 percent in recent months following the death of 13-year-old Michelle Fontanez, who police say was raped and killed by her stepfather after she had revealed that he had been raping her for years. Child removals in Broward County spiked by 30 percent, Wexler wrote, in the wake of another high-profile case, the Jan. 1 death of Jaquez Mason. Police have charged the three-year-old boy's mother with scalding him to death. And the number of removals in the West Palm Beach area increased by 30 percent in 2005, after other tragedies, Wexler wrote. In Miami, former DCF district administrator Chuck Hood dramatically reduced the number of children taken into state care, while presiding over the state's best safety record for vulnerable children, Wexler wrote. For that, he endured constant criticism from some advocates, until he resigned last winter. In his report, Wexler says that, contrary to accepted wisdom, removing so many children from their families has not resulted in fewer child deaths or better safety. In fact, the report says, the spike in Florida's foster care rolls has occurred even as measures of child safety have declined. That's because, during such periods of crisis, child-abuse investigators and caseworkers -- faced with larger and larger caseloads and shorter time frames to make decisions -- are more prone to make mistakes in judgment, the report says. ''The worst part of a foster-care panic is: It backfires,'' the report says. 'Contrary to conventional wisdom, and contrary to what `gut instinct' would suggest, foster-care panics actually make children less safe.'' ? A frequent critic of Florida's foster-care system lobbed another grenade over the fence last week. (A practical approach to child welfare, Miami Herald editorial) Richard Wexler, head of the Virginia-based National Coalition for Child Protection Reform, advocates doing more to help families with children at risk for reasons of poverty. Too many of these kids end up in foster care in Florida, he says -- and he's right. In a new report Mr. Wexler says the state should put more resources into helping these families to keep them intact. What he didn't say is that Florida is poised to do exactly that in October. The program results from a waiver the state obtained from the federal government to use money normally earmarked only for foster-care services to also help at-risk kids in parents' custody. This is a five-year pilot program that will allow privately run community-based groups that now oversee foster care to take preventive steps to keep children in their families. The money can be used for parental training, one-time payments for rent and child care, substance-abuse and mental-illness treatments and similar services. There is much potential in this program, and there are risks, too. One concern is that the money allocated to the state each year, even with 3 percent annual increases, may not cover the dual demands of foster care and needy families. If the state experiences a sharp increase in foster children, the Legislature will have to find ways to ensure that all child-welfare needs are met. The track record is good. The Legislature -- with support from Gov. Jeb Bush -- has increased foster-care funding for the last five years. Yet, there still are long waiting lists for some services. For the first time, however, the waiver gives child-welfare providers flexibility in spending federal dollars to help Florida's at-risk children. Current federal eligibility rules are arcane, say Department of Children & Families officials. Instead of the money following the children's needs, the money follows rigid federal rules. So, for example, a child in foster care and a child in parental custody may need the same service -- but the latter does not qualify for help. The waiver makes both children eligible. A welcome stipulation in the waiver program is for frequent mandatory, independent evaluations. The DCF should make sure the evaluator truly is independent by tapping an expert source with no strings in Florida, political or otherwise. For instance, the evaluator should not be dependent on the state for funding, not even funding unrelated to child welfare. Such independence from special interests or financial ties will ensure frank, accurate assessments of Florida's foray into a brave new world of child welfare. ? As the rate of girls entering Florida's juvenile justice system escalates, programs to help them continue to lag far behind, according to a new study released Tuesday. (Help for delinquent girls criticized, St. Petersburg Times) Girls accounted for one in four juvenile arrests in Florida in 2003-2004; a year later, the rate jumped to one in three, according to state data. "Very few places have really embraced gender-responsive strategies," said Barry Krisberg, president of the National Council on Crime and Delinquency. "Girls' programs are often boys' programs painted pink." On Tuesday, the research group based in Oakland, Calif., released "A Rallying Cry for Change," calling it the largest and most comprehensive study ever done on girls in a state juvenile justice system. The study, funded by the Jessie Ball duPont Fund, concluded that girls in the system are being overlooked and not receiving gender-specific treatment. "What Florida needs is a comprehensive blueprint on how to fix this system," Krisberg said. Officials from the Florida Department of Juvenile Justice declined to comment on the study Tuesday, saying they wanted time to review the findings. But spokeswoman Tara Collins said, "DJJ is committed to serving the unique needs of the girls in our care." About 1,000 girls reside in Florida's juvenile detention centers on any given day, Krisberg said. According to the Florida Department of Juvenile Justice, 17 girls and 73 boys currently reside at the Juvenile Detention Center in Pinellas County. In Hillsborough County, there are eight girls and 100 boys in the county's two juvenile detention centers. The longest stay for a girl at one of the centers is 160 days, and the youngest girl is 12 years old. Researchers involved with the study conducted one-on-one interviews with 319 girls ages 12 to 19 in the juvenile system throughout Florida. Most, 244, were in residential programs. "It's a very in-depth, detailed profile of who these girls are," Krisberg said. Among the study's findings: Girls are entering Florida's juvenile justice system at young ages, with 40 percent committing their first offense before age 13. Girls throughout the system shared common experiences, including mental health problems, family issues and conflict, and substance abuse. "The interviews were very, very intense," said Vanessa Patino, one of the study's primary researchers. "If you sat there with them for an hour, it would be hard to grasp what they'd experienced by the age of 15." Half of the girls engaged in self-mutilation, 34 percent had attempted suicide in the last year and 59 percent had a parent or sibling on probation or in a correctional institution in the last three years. Sixty-one percent had committed an offense against a family member, and 46 percent had a significant drug or alcohol problem. Krisberg said recent portrayals of women doing well in society has overshadowed those who are still struggling. "We're overlooking a significant segment of young women who are not doing very well," he said. Despite these findings, researchers said the girls showed resilience and remained hopeful about their futures. "These girls are down but not out," Krisberg said. DOE Pressures School Districts on "F" Schools Three school districts could face financial penalties unless they can satisfy state officials that they are taking sufficient steps to improve chronically failing schools. (Three districts with failing schools could face penalties, Associated Press/Palm Beach Post) The Florida Board of Education on Monday gave the districts three weeks to make changes that include replacing principals, explaining how much extra money is being spent to help failing schools, proving faculties have a record of improving student test scores and offering more parental contact. The Miami-Dade, Orange and Duval county school districts would lose an amount equivalent to the salaries of their superintendents, a largely symbolic penalty, and competitive grants that could run into the millions of dollars if they fail to comply by Aug. 7. The financial penalties would be the first ever the state has imposed to prod districts into improve schools that have received an F more than once since 1999. The grades are based largely on results from the Florida Comprehensive Assessment Test. "We're at a point where we have to go to the next level, which is withholding funds," said Florida Education Commissioner John Winn. Until this year, students from public schools that received an F twice within four years could receive a voucher to attend a private school at public expense. The Florida Supreme Court in January ruled the voucher program violated the state constitution's provision requiring a uniform system of free public schools. While losing the equivalent of the superintendent's salary would have a relatively small affect, for example $275,000 in Duval County, the ban on applying for state and federal discretionary grants could be significant. Winn said losing those grants, however, shouldn't affect student instruction because the discretionary money typically is used to pay for pilot programs, new technologies or developmental projects. The most contentious issue is expected to be changing principals. The state board is requiring that new principals have prior experience in raising a school's grade from F or D to A or B. None of the new principals at three failing Miami-Dade high schools — Jackson, Edison and Central — meets that criteria. Miami-Dade Superintendent Rudy Crew told the state board that making another change just three weeks before the new academic year would cause more destabilization at the schools. The board still ruled Miami-Dade out of compliance. The other high schools failing to meet board requirements are Jones and Evans in Orlando and Ribault in Jacksonville. Jefferson High School in Monticello also has receive more than one F, but the board found the Jefferson County School District's improvement plan was in compliance. The school's new principal formerly led Jefferson Middle School from an F to a B. ? If the owners of the Miami Heat had told Coach Pat Riley at mid-season which players to start and which ones to put on the bench, the team certainly wouldn't have finished this year as world champions. (Getting low-performing schools past ÒFÓ, Miami Herald editorial) This, essentially, is the position that the Florida Department of Education has taken with Miami-Dade County Schools regarding three of the district's lowest performing schools. DOE means well, but its demand to change principals at this stage, if carried out, will be counterproductive. DOE is frustrated that three Miami-Dade high schools -- Edison, Jackson and Central -- have failed to improve their performances sufficiently enough to warrant being designated ''D'' schools instead of ''F'' schools based on the governor's A+ Plan for school improvement. So DOE asked the district to replace the principals at these schools with new principals who have a track record of improving student test scores. That seems like a good idea, but it ignores significant progress already being made under new leadership and new direction at the schools. DOE also is asking the district for explanations of how much extra money is spent at these schools and how teachers are being prepared to deal with students who have difficulty learning English. The agency is threatening to withhold a small amount of funds from the district's discretionary budget until its demands are met. These are not unreasonable requests, and none of the at-risk funds are used for teachers' salaries or other core educational activities. Give the DOE and Commissioner John Winn credit for their uncompromising insistence that all schools improve, especially those with records of low achievement. By setting high standards and insisting on results, the governor and DOE have improved overall achievement in Florida schools. The demand to change principals at Edison, Jackson and Central comes two years after new Superintendent Rudy Crew and a much-improved School Board have completely overhauled education in the district, including at the three schools in question. The board and superintendent designated special education zones for schools that need extra help and created education ''academies'' where students can get individual attention in areas of particular interest. These are novel approaches that can pay dividends -- over time. Moreover, Superintendent Crew has taken personal responsibility for low-performing schools -- something no previous superintendent has done. Mr. Crew says that the three schools have improved their performance on tests by 20 percent and are about a year away from achievement levels that would warrant removal of the ''F'' label. DOE's demand to change principals at this point are unreasonable. There aren't enough principals in the district who fit DOE's model to have a decent screening. DOE is right to insist on results, but the Miami-Dade district deserves a chance to finish the job it has started. After all, in the four years prior to the current overhaul, these same schools followed DOE and state-mandated guidelines -- but with none of the success currently underway in these schools. The irony is that DOE, the School Board and Superintendent Crew share the same passion and commitment for educational excellence. Mr. Winn says, ``it is undeniable that Dr. Crew has made good progress, especially in improving reading and math scores. And I am impressed with his focus on the zoned schools.'' Given their common goal, these educators need to get on the same page about the district's progress and resolve their differences. It would help, too, if DOE resisted the urge to micromanage the district from Tallahassee. ? The frustration over the failures at Jones and Evans high schools finally came home to roost Monday, with the state Board of Education threatening to block $25 million in grants if Orange County Superintendent Ron Blocker doesn't take bold action. (Now or never, Orlando Sentinel editorial) Among the changes state Education Commissioner John Winn wants is the replacement of principals at Jones and Evans, both chronically underperforming schools. Mr. Blocker, though, is arguing that replacing these principals will set the reform effort back. Mr. Winn ought to respect that position, given that it is Mr. Blocker's job on the line. Mr. Blocker has to know that the community's patience is at an end. He must do more than dig in and defend the status quo. Remember that in the past eight years, Evans and Jones have never scored better than a D grade based on their students' performance on the Florida Comprehensive Assessment Test. Mr. Winn is right: That's not a record that can be defended on any grounds. The performance plan Mr. Blocker is pitching for Jones and Evans would add a seventh period to the school day for all students -- freshman, sophomores, juniors and seniors. He has gone further to add a seventh period to Oak Ridge High, the district's third struggling high school. While this shows progress, Mr. Blocker's plan does not go far enough because it does not require mandatory one-on-one tutoring for struggling readers. In any event, Mr. Blocker is pushing the School Board to spend an additional $4.5 million each at Jones, Evans and Oak Ridge to help these students. The bottom line is that Mr. Blocker is staking his reputation on this plan, and he knows his performance will be judged on its success. Mr. Blocker is equally as adamant that the principals at Jones and Evans deserve more time to turn their schools around. Indeed, Jones Principal Bridgett Williams has only been on the job since May. Evans Principal Karen Wilson has been at the school for two years. State law allows Mr. Winn to insist that principals at F schools be replaced by administrators who have shown the ability to raise a school from an F or D to a B or A, so that would prohibit Ms. Wilson and Ms. Williams from leading these struggling schools. Neither one has accomplished that feat. But only a handful of principals in Florida have. Mr. Blocker argues that these principals deserve a chance. He has allowed them to replace subordinates and remove teachers that haven't performed well. These steps, Mr. Blocker insists, represent the bold action Mr. Winn is demanding Mr. Winn's frustration is justified, but he ought to respect Mr. Blocker's position. After all, Mr. Blocker will be held responsible for the results. Another year of failure won't be tolerated. FCAT, Bush Education Policies Factors in GovernorÕs Race Gov. Jeb Bush is popular. The FCAT isn't. (Gov. Bush, FCAT hang over race, St. Petersburg Times) The race to replace him may turn in part on which icon is more potent. The Democrats - U.S. Rep. Jim Davis and state Sen. Rod Smith - slam virtually every change Bush has made to Florida's school system, but reserve special scorn for the Florida Comprehensive Assessment Test. Smith says the governor's "maniacal commitment" to the FCAT is burning out teachers and thinning out curriculum. Davis calls it a "political weapon." Meanwhile, the Republicans - Attorney General Charlie Crist and Chief Financial Officer Tom Gallagher - praise Bush's policies and promise to keep using the FCAT to grade schools, retain students and reward teachers. Both approaches carry big risks. The Republicans want a smooth ride on the coattails of a popular governor, but Bush's glow does not extend to his education policies, which remain out of favor with the public and even with many loyal Republicans. That is especially true of the FCAT, which preceded Bush's election but became the keystone in his efforts to restructure Florida schools. "If it was my campaign, that would not be the position I'd be taking," said state Sen. Dennis Jones, a Treasure Island Republican and Crist supporter. "When you see so much opposition to the FCAT, all the parties involved need to find a better way." But by condemning Bush's policies across the board, Democrats may be rolling the dice, too. Bush's school grading formula has forced Florida schools to pay more attention to struggling students, who tend to be poor and minority. And some credible national yardsticks of student achievement show Florida students have made big gains in math and reading since Bush became governor, especially among minority students. It is "inescapable" that Florida's focus on the lowest-performing students has resulted in real gains, said Andrew Rotherham, a former education policy adviser to President Bill Clinton who now runs an influential blog, Eduwonk. Rotherham offered praise and criticism for Florida's school grading system. But he said Democrats should be wary about sticking so closely to the teachers union's hyper-critical position on the FCAT and other issues, given the possibility of alienating some of the party's other core constituencies. "What you're seeing is a potential formidable wedge between low-income minority kids and organized groups of educators," he said. In many ways, this fall's election amounts to a referendum on Jeb Bush, the only two-term Republican governor in Florida history. Nowhere has Bush had more impact than on education. And nothing is a more emotionally charged symbol of his vision of reform than the FCAT. The Florida election has national implications, too. The school accountability movement began to flower nationally in the 1990s in response to long-stagnant test scores and fears about weakening American competitiveness in a global economy. Since then, Florida has become one of its leading lights, staying true to the movement's core belief that high-stakes tests - and not big infusions of cash - are the best way to improve schools. Bush has championed use of the FCAT to gauge whether students are reading, writing and crunching numbers better than before and then rewarding or punishing schools based on the results. More quietly, the Bush revolution revved up use of other tests and data to measure basic skills and give struggling students extra help. Florida Democrats define accountability differently. Smith says it's not about rewards and penalties to nudge schools in the right direction, but accurately measuring and reporting how they "stack up next to each other. "Do I expect people will respond to that" and strive to improve? he asked. "Absolutely." Crist and Gallagher like Bush's version. Both candidates feature the governor's image prominently on their Web sites. Both are former education commissioners who say they worked tirelessly to support Bush's policies. "Gov. Bush is leaving Florida's schools and their students in the best shape they have ever been," Gallagher writes in his policy paper on education. Crist, in his paper, drops Bush's name 17 times in 11 pages. But while recent polls show the governor is comfortably popular, they also highlight that his education policies are not. A St. Petersburg Times poll found more Florida residents say the FCAT has hurt public schools than helped, 42 percent to 37 percent. Even among Republicans, a lukewarm 44 percent said the FCAT was helping compared to 33 percent who said it was not. On more specific questions, strong majorities, even among Republicans, opposed using the FCAT to penalize schools, retain students or determine which teachers deserve bonuses. The poll, conducted in March, had a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points. The FCAT "traumatizes" teachers and students and "every year the pain and agony increase," said Gloria Pipkin, a retired teacher in Panama City who heads an anti-FCAT group called the Florida Coalition for Assessment Reform. With the accountability movement, "we seem to be in a race to see whose rigor is bigger." The Republican candidates can't credibly distance themselves from Bush because Florida Republicans have followed the governor's lead on education "lock, stock and barrel," said University of Florida political science professor Daniel Smith. If they tried, they would look like they were "flip-flopping, and God knows Republicans don't want to be seen as flip-floppers." Both candidates, however, are carving out wiggle room. Crist has argued that Republican lawmakers should stop trying to water down the 2002 class-size amendment, while Gallagher says he would continue to support such efforts, given billions of dollars in future costs. It remains to be seen how that difference will play out in the Sept. 5 primary. Gallagher, meanwhile, goes out of his way in his policy paper to tell teachers and principals - the biggest critics of Bush's education policies - that his administration "cannot accomplish ongoing reform alone." The wording suggests Gallagher might be more willing than Bush to seek input from them and attempt to earn their support. Gallagher campaign spokesman Alberto Martinez says the public's views of Bush's education policies will be reshaped dramatically between now and November. He pointed to Bush's attempt to sink the class-size amendment while running for re-election in 2002. The amendment still passed, but in a matter of weeks Bush's opposition turned a landslide for the amendment into a relative squeaker. This fall, Bush is expected to campaign for the Republican nominee and, by extension, his legacy. "Let's see the election season play its course," Martinez said. Republicans are also confident they have evidence on their side. "The facts quickly diminish any perceived advantage" for Democrats, said Crist spokeswoman Vivian Myrtetus. Bush supporters point to the National Assessment of Educational Progress, often called the nation's report card. The NAEP test is one of the few national yardsticks that attempts to gauge trends in student achievement nationwide and allows state-by-state comparisons. The New York Times calls it the "strongest, most well-respected test in the country." NAEP scores show big gains in Florida's elementary schools, where Bush focused first. The test is given to a statistically representative sample of fourth- and eighth-graders in all 50 states. State-by-state comparisons go back to 1990. Between 1990 and 1998, Florida fourth-graders consistently ranked among the worst in the country in reading. But since 1998, only one state has made bigger gains than Florida. In 2005, 65 percent of Florida's fourth-graders were reading at a basic level or above, putting them at No. 26 nationally. Minority students are improving the most. In 1998, 31 percent of black fourth-graders in Florida were reading at basic or above, putting them near the bottom nationally. But in 2005, they ranked No. 12, with 45 percent reading at basic or above. Only three states - New York, Texas and Delaware - climbed faster. Scores for Hispanic fourth-graders in Florida rose quickly over that period, too, from 46 percent to 61 percent, putting them No. 4 nationally. To counter Democratic criticism about the FCAT, "all the Republicans need to do is get three good statistics" and play them up in campaign commercials, said Charles Garcia, a former member of the state Board of Education and a Crist supporter. To date, those kinds of statistics have not made Bush's initiatives more popular. In fact, black parents are more likely than white parents to say the FCAT has hurt their child's education, polls show. Many black parents don't like the "punitive" nature of the FCAT, said Rep. Frank Peterman, a St. Petersburg Democrat whose district is majority black. And they sense something isn't right when Florida ranks poorly on other education indicators, such as per-pupil spending and teacher pay. "We have not advanced as far as we should since the FCAT came into place," Peterman said. Smith and Davis said better test scores in elementary schools aren't enough. Both point to stagnant NAEP scores among middle school students and high school graduation rates that remain among the worst in the country. "There is an awful lot of opportunity we haven't achieved," Davis said. "I simply have higher expectations than that," said Smith. Neither Democrat has offered detailed plans for change beyond boosting teacher pay. In the meantime, both promise to dramatically downsize the FCAT into more of a "diagnostic" tool. Bush supporter T. Willard Fair likes what he hears. "The last gubernatorial race, the same strategy was used by the Democrats, right?" asked Fair, who was appointed to the state Board of Education by Bush after they worked together to set up a charter school in one of the poorest neighborhoods in Miami. In 2002, Democrat Bill McBride blasted Bush's system for grading schools as "absurd" and said the FCAT should only be used as a diagnostic tool. Bush won easily. Education Notes The U.S. Department of Education, meaning the Bush administration, last week turned an important study comparing public and private schools into a case study on how to bury bad news. (Bush-suppressed study dispels voucher myth, Palm Beach Post editorial) First, it's instructive to explain why the Education Department considered the study to be bad news. Ironic as it may seem to those who haven't followed the Bush administration, it's not because public schools performed poorly. It's just the opposite. The study, conducted for the Education Department by the Educational Testing Service, concluded that public schools stack up well against private schools. That's "bad news" to the pro-voucher Bush administration and explains why the Department of Education sat on the study after receiving it last year, added weasel words to water down the conclusions and then released the report with zero fanfare on a Friday afternoon in mid-summer when the Middle East was going up in flames. As Reg Weaver, president of the National Education Association told The New York Times, if the study had given private schools a big edge, "there would have been press conferences and glowing statements about private schools." The NEA, which represents public school teachers, has an obvious bias on the subject. In this case, though, Mr. Weaver's analysis is correct. The ultimate goal of the Bush administration in Washington, like the Bush administration in Florida, is to use as much public money as possible to pay for private religious schools. Whether all private schools actually provide a better traditional education isn't the issue, which is why Gov. Bush always has refused to make private voucher schools administer the Florida Comprehensive Assessment Test to all voucher students and why his brother's administration tried to drop the new study into a black hole. The study looked at reading and math scores from 2003 in grades four and eight. The one area where private schools did better was in eighth-grade reading. But religious conservatives, who are some of the strongest voucher supporters, wouldn't like the details. The study found that children in religion-oriented Christian schools did no better than their public school counterparts in eighth-grade reading and did much worse in math. If public and private schools are in a virtual dead heat, creating a system of voucher-mill private schools wouldn't help to improve American education. Rather than waste more time and political effort on creating broad voucher programs, politicians who really want to improve public schools should focus on reforms that take place within public schools. For example, if Lutheran private schools are the best at teaching math, as the study suggests, find out why and try to replicate it in public classrooms. Whenever the Bush administration faces credible research or analysis that disputes the president's ideology - whether the subject is global warming, taxes, Iraq or education - the administration ignores it, to the country's detriment. Since only the Times has written about the school study, the Bush administration may have succeeded in managing the "bad" news. If so, that would be bad news for everyone who doesn't work in the White House. ? After decades of runaway school growth, educators across much of Florida are asking, "Where are all the kids?" (Schools ask: Where are the Kids? Orlando Sentinel) Enrollment has swung into reverse in several of the largest school districts and slowed dramatically in others. Miami-Dade, Broward, Duval and Pinellas counties all have lost students, as have 15 other districts. Officials are scrambling to determine where the students went and whether they are gone for good. "We used to grow by 10,000 kids a year," said Jane Turner, budget director for the Broward district. This past year the district lost nearly 2,500 students. Some districts, including Seminole and Palm Beach, are on the edge of an enrollment drop. Orange County and other Central Florida districts continue to grow but much slower than expected. "Was this the start of a new trend or was it just an aberration?" asked Henry Boekhoff, finance director for Orange, which had 5,176 fewer students last year than expected. Although no one can cite a specific cause, school officials blame the growth stall on everything from fear of hurricanes to post-Sept. 11 curbs on immigration to high-priced housing that drives out families. Educators are unsure how many students to expect for the school year that kicks off with the start of classes July 31 in Seminole County. The uncertain numbers affect immediate expenses, such as hiring teachers, as well as long-range planning for costly school construction. In years past, Bradford, Jackson, Union and other small-county districts vulnerable to local economic sways have popped up occasionally on the state's list of districts with declining enrollment. But Miami-Dade -- largest school district in the state and fourth-largest in the nation -- suddenly appeared on the list three years ago. The district lost more than 4,100 students this past school year and 9,200 since the decline began. Pinellas, which includes St. Petersburg, joined the list in 2004. Broward (Fort Lauderdale) and Duval (Jacksonville) showed up this year. Those four districts account for a third of the students in the state. Other school systems across Florida wonder whether they are next. In Palm Beach County, schools have struggled to handle 5,000 or more additional students a year. Last year only 270 more students arrived. "This year we expect to be flat. I figure we will get three kids," said Mike Burke, budget director for Palm Beach schools. He was not joking. He said he came up with the total after crunching the numbers. Annual gains of as many as 65,000 students are not unusual for Florida public schools. But total enrollment fell short of projections in 45 of the state's 67 school districts this year, according to a state head count of students that determines funding for schools. Although Florida had 29,844 new students, the schools had been expecting an additional 35,630 who never showed up. It's as though all the children in the Lake County school system disappeared. Among Central Florida school districts, only Polk County grew beyond its projected enrollment. Even Hillsborough County, which had the highest gain in the state with 4,794 more students, fell far short of expectations. Clay, Lake, Lee and Pasco school districts were other big gainers, each growing by more than 2,000 students, but with only Clay exceeding projections. Booming Flagler County, which has the highest school-enrollment-growth rate in the state, wobbled, too. Its 14 percent increase had been expected to be 15 percent. State experts are combing data to come up with concrete reasons for the shortfall. "The only thing I really have evidence for is that fewer students came into the state," said Carolyn DuBard, an analyst with the Florida Legislature's Office of Economic and Demographic Research. Two years ago Florida schools gained nearly 116,000 students from other areas of the United States and more than 25,000 from foreign countries. But final numbers, not yet completed, will show that thousands fewer arrived this past school year, DuBard said, despite an influx of hurricane refugees from Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. New York, Georgia, New Jersey, Texas and Puerto Rico usually are the top sources of new Florida students from within the United States. Cuba, Haiti, Mexico, Colombia, Venezuela and Peru are the big feeders from outside the country. A state study showed that at the start of the 2002-03 school year, 5,576 students poured into Orange County schools alone from out of state, the largest influx among Florida school districts. DuBard said the number of students who moved out of state, still to be determined, also reduced the overall count. There are some other numbers to back up the drop in enrollment, too. Last year about 3,000 more students left public schools through the state's corporate-tax-credit scholarships, which allow low-income students to attend private schools. The total jumped to 13,487, up from 10,473 the previous year. About 200 more kids also were enrolled in private schools through the state's McKay Scholarship Program, which lets parents of exceptional-education students transfer their children out of public schools. Other parents also may have switched their children to private schools, paying tuition out of their own pockets. Several local private schools report growing enrollment. "Last year we had a large increase from the year before," said Pouneh Alcott, director of Lake Mary Prep, which has about 630 students. But statewide, private-school enrollment may be sagging, too. After rising for several years, it dropped substantially two years ago, the state Department of Education said. Figures for the past school year are not yet available. Home-schooling may have affected the public-school total as well. The number of students educated at home has been rising steadily, although the Education Department did not have the number on that for last year either. Theories vary on what caused families to stay away from Florida, leave the state or switch school districts. Officials in Miami-Dade and Broward say tightened immigration rules after the 9-11 terrorist attack permitted fewer immigrants from foreign countries -- a major source of new students for both counties. Miami-Dade expects enrollment to drop or remain flat for three more years and then begin to grow once more. In Seminole and Palm Beach counties, officials say low-income residents may have been forced out by the high cost of houses and conversion of apartments to unaffordable condominiums. Seminole officials calculate that 7,224 apartments in more than two dozen complexes were converted to condos, which typically are sold to individuals without school-age children. "That could be 1,600 students that we lost," acting Superintendent George Kosmac said. High housing costs statewide may have kept some out-of-state students from moving here, school officials in several counties said. A crackdown on out-of-county students sneaking into high-rated Seminole schools also may have been a factor there. Dozens of students at Lake Brantley High and other schools were caught and shipped back to Orange, Lake and Volusia counties. Others may have left for fear of detection. The hurricanes had to be at fault as well, state and local officials agree. Some people moved elsewhere after their homes were damaged or destroyed, while fear of storms kept others away. But whatever the reasons, fewer new students means less state funding, which tops $5,000 per student. Many districts are holding back on hiring teachers and other employees for the coming school year for fear they will overspend their budgets if they rely on optimistic state projections for growth. The state is predicting more than 50,536 additional students this upcoming school year. Seminole County schools, which gained only 782 students last school year, saw enrollment peak in October and drift downward through spring term. Advance enrollment for fall has dropped even further during the summer, and officials are worried that the district will move into declining enrollment. "We are starting to see a trend," said John Pavelchak, finance director for Seminole. "I am hoping we get no less than 300 to 400 new kids." Seminole has held off hiring 80 teachers who won't be needed if students don't show. Uncertainty about enrollment and the need for new school buildings in Seminole also has postponed consideration of more than tripling the school-impact fee, a tax on new homes to help finance school construction. Orange adjusted its budget late last school year to cover the $25 million loss of state funding caused by the shortfall in students and is making adjustments for the coming school year, too. Volusia and Lake also are keeping a wary eye on enrollment and budgets. Osceola is one of the fastest-growing school districts in the state but didn't get the students it counted on last year either. It expected an 8 percent increase in enrollment but got 5 percent. The district is holding back $6 million in this year's budget in case students don't arrive and state funding falls through once more. "A large number of houses were built, but there weren't a lot of new students," said Rick Collins, assistant superintendent of Osceola schools. "Nobody has been able to tell me exactly what caused our decline." ? Opponents of UF's desire for more fiscal independence will argue that it needs more oversight and accountability. (Off the books, Gainesville Sun editorial) For years, University of Florida administrators complained about "micromanagement" from Tallahassee. The old joke was that Tigert Hall couldn't buy so much as a pencil without first clearing it with the Legislature and the old Board of Regents. If only UF were free to run its own fiscal shop, the argument went, it would have the flexibility to spend money on its highest priorities while remaining accountable to the taxpayers. A lot of that micromanagement went away with the passage of a state constitutional amendment that devolved university governance to the campus level. But now we are learning that the lines of fiscal accountability at UF haven't been nearly as strong as promised. Poor fiscal management in the College of Liberal Arts and Sciences have run up millions of dollars of debts since 2003. Caught in a deepening spiral of deficit spending, the college was borrowing from indirect cost funds (normally used to buy equipment and cover overhead costs) to help pay salaries and cover its rising debt. This year the college has a debt of $4.8 million, with a projected debt of another $2.9 million next year if budget adjustments aren't made. Now UF is considering covering the debt with contingency funds. Speaking of the college's fiscal practices, UF Provost Jane Fouke told The Sun last week, "I've never heard of it anywhere except for teenagers and their parents." For now at least, the administration insists that it continues to have confidence in college dean Neil Sullivan. But it is difficult to understand how the college's fiscal problems could have mounted without Tigert Hall getting wind of it. Since it did, that raises another uncomfortable question: Are there any other colleges out there with similar problems? And how can Tigert Hall even be sure, since the College of Liberal Arts' overspending is only now coming to light? The college's fiscal irresponsibility may require layoffs and program cuts, and it seems to have already hurt its ability to hire talented new faculty, since the college has had to dip into funds that are normally used to support recruitment. Having finally gotten Tigert Hall's attention, the college will no longer be able to rob "Peter to pay Paul," as Fouke puts it. Bailing out the College of Liberal Arts and Sciences could be painful, but that may be the least of President Bernie Machen's worries in regard to this fiscal scandal. It's clear that the University of Florida desires not less, but more, fiscal independence from Tallahassee. Indeed, the ability to one day be able to charge tuition rates that are higher than those levied at other Florida state universities is crucial to UF's goal of joining the ranks of America's top ten public universities. The Legislature has always fiercely resisted the idea of universities charging different tuition rates. And opponents will almost certainly seize upon the college's fiscal overruns as an argument that UF doesn't need more money, just more oversight and accountability. To achieve UF's ambitious goals, President Machen must be able to assure lawmakers that taxpayer dollars are being well spent and well accounted for under his watch. Making that case has suddenly gotten tougher. Clearly, a stronger system of internal controls is needed to ensure that similar fiscal time bombs are not quietly ticking away at other UF colleges and units. Higher Rates and No Easy Answers in Property Insurance Crisis As homeowners across Florida open their windstorm insurance renewal notices this year, they are learning they're going to be paying hundreds or even thousands of dollars more for their premiums. (Insurance financing solutions elusive, Palm Beach Post) What they may not know is that today and for the past three decades, they have also been sending tax money, both indirectly and directly, to property insurance companies — not to keep their own premiums low, but to ensure those companies' profits. The state assists private insurance companies by providing windstorm insurance for those properties most at risk, allowing the private insurance companies to cherry-pick the low-risk, high-profit policies; by offering tax-subsidized reinsurance to insurance companies at a lower cost than they can get it elsewhere; and by paying some private companies incentives to take over high-risk policies in addition to the premiums they receive from those policies. These subsidies are part of the reason why, despite record hurricane damage last year, the nation's major insurance companies nonetheless posted record profits. Now, they are also looming as one of biggest issues of this election season. "Floridians are getting tired of this," state House Democratic leader Chris Smith said. "Some folks are paying more in insurance premiums than they're paying in mortgage payments." Democrats, hoping that the electorate's anger over hurricanes will translate into a shift of the political winds as well, are offering a radically different solution. They want the state to effectively become the windstorm insurer for every home in Florida up to a certain amount such as the first $100,000, or perhaps even the first $500,000, of a home's value. Democrats say the plan will save homeowners money because the state won't have to pay taxes or make a profit off selling insurance. Republicans generally scoff at the plan as "socialistic." They defend the current system — under which the state-run Citizens Property Insurance Corp. underwrites homes that the private industry doesn't want — as an imperfect means of keeping private insurers in Florida and providing coverage for those whom private companies will not insure. "To me, it would seriously jeopardize the economy of our state. This thing would be Citizens on steroids," said Chief Financial Officer Tom Gallagher, a Republican candidate for governor. "We need to get Florida out of the insurance business." Gallagher said the state first needs to make insurance available, and then make it affordable. But he has not offered any specific solutions of his own. "We're working on some things," he said. Democrats argue the current system is already socialistic — just a sort of crony socialism designed to help insurance companies, rather than ordinary Floridians. "The truth of the matter is, when our (Republican) colleagues had to choose between homeowners and insurance companies, if you look at your premium, you know who they went with," said Rep. Dan Gelber, D-Miami Beach, a chief promoter of the Democrats' plan. "The solution to obscene rates shouldn't be rate increases." One Republican, chief financial officer candidate Randy Johnson, wants to move in the opposite direction of Democrats. He proposes freezing property and casualty insurance rates until home and business owners can weigh in at public hearings and then deregulating the industry over the long term to encourage more insurers to come into the state. But Democrats have at least one Republican ally in this debate: Attorney General and gubernatorial hopeful Charlie Crist, who for months has criticized Citizens as a "failed insurance company" under the stewardship of his GOP primary opponent, Gallagher. "It probably will be better than what we have right now," Crist said of Gelber's proposal in a recent interview. "That's an initial impression: That's not an idea I would cast aside. I think it has merit." That state government is involved even to the extent it is today is testament to the crucial role property insurance plays in the lifeblood of Florida's economy: real estate development. Similar price hikes and lack of availability in, say, trip cancellation insurance, almost certainly would not lead the state to create a program to help residents buy it. Homeowners insurance is something else entirely. Without an income tax, Florida for decades has relied on real estate transaction taxes and increasing sales tax revenues from new residents to pay the state's expenses. If no homeowners insurance were available, banks would stop writing mortgages for new construction. And if banks stopped writing mortgages, the Florida economy would grind to a stop. "It's actually become an economic development crisis in Florida. It's not just a property and casualty crisis," said Senate President Tom Lee during the spring legislative session. "If we don't have an adequate supply of capital in this state to write insurance policies to cover that construction, we will come to a screeching halt in Florida, and that's not an option this legislature wants to entertain." To that end, Florida has created several quasi-public entities since the 1970s to take on risky properties that the private market doesn't want, making it easier for the private companies to remain profitable. Anyone with property insurance, private or otherwise, has helped shore up those entities through assessments paid through their private insurance companies. And this year, the Republican-controlled legislature and Gov. Jeb Bush approved giving Citizens $715 million in direct tax money to help pay down its $1.7 billion deficit from two devastating hurricane seasons. The rest will come from additional assessments on policyholders — including non-Citizens customers — in coming years. Citizens meanwhile paid $156 million in incentives to private companies that were willing to take over some of its policies during the last three years. The Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund also has sold cheap reinsurance to private companies with the understanding that Florida policyholders will fill it back up if it runs out. Democrats have floated several different plans over the past few months, including one that Republicans killed in an early committee meeting during the legislative session. Gelber, who will become the House Democratic leader at the end of this year, is making the rounds with one featured on a Web site sponsored by the party — stormingmad.com. It would eliminate the current situation in Florida, where insurers can write the all-perils policy for a house (fire, theft, liability) but choose not to write the windstorm coverage, leaving that to Citizens instead. Outside the high-risk pool area — which is roughly east of Interstate 95 in Palm Beach County — companies must write all coverage, windstorm and all-perils, or nothing. The Democrats' plan would eliminate those geographical distinctions. It would require the state to take on the first layer of a home's windstorm coverage — numbers have ranged from $50,000 to $500,000 — regardless of location. Private industry would compete to write the rest. Under the plan, private insurers would write and manage a policy, handling all the claims processing. The plan would also eliminate the Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund. Democrats say the plan would mean lower premiums for homeowners, but they haven't calculated what the savings would be. They also say the program would spread the risk over a wider range of low-risk and high-risk properties, which could help the state avoid the deficit problems that Citizens has had. "It's basically just to say the government involvement is not going to be in a certain risk pool, a leper colony of risk, but spread out," Gelber said. Sen. Rod Smith, D-Alachua and one of the Democrats running for governor, proposes a plan similar to Gelber's but with a cap set at $50,000. Smith's primary election opponent, U.S. Rep. Jim Davis of Tampa, supports a different plan of improving consumer advocacy and forcing insurance companies to cover flood damage, too. The insurance industry is not entirely opposed to Gelber's idea but said that the details would prove crucial. "It may very well be somewhere down the road the state may make a decision that the only way homeowners can afford insurance is through a heavily subsidized state program," said Sam Miller, spokesman for the Florida Insurance Council. He said some companies are interested in looking into the idea. "No one's dismissing it out of hand." Miller said Gelber's plan does raise some concerns because it eliminates the catastrophe fund and the high-risk pool — two features that Miller said insurers will need as long as they remain in the windstorm business. Miller said he also doubted whether the plan would save homeowners any significant money. He pointed out that homeowners insurance has been a money-losing business in Florida for the past two years and that was unlikely to change if the state took over. "People should not believe we can shift the chairs on the deck and somehow dramatically reduce the amount of money that has to come from somewhere to pay these hurricane claims," he said. "To say the profit factor will take care of it and the tax exemption will take care of it, that hasn't been demonstrated." Regardless, Democrats are intent upon making this one of the main campaign issues this fall. Last month, the party rolled out its insurance plan Web site, and its leaders are asking the ruling Republicans to call a special session on property insurance before the November election, but that appears unlikely. If the issue is to become a problem for any Republican, it's most likely to be Gallagher. He served twice as insurance commissioner and in 2002 won the Chief Financial Officer seat, which holds the closest links to the Office of Insurance Regulation of any on the Cabinet. And Gallagher's primary foe has said the insurance mess clearly is fair game as a campaign issue. "There's no question that it resonates," Crist said, adding that he didn't plan to blame Gallagher personally. "That's for the voters to decide, and I'm sure they will. They're smart, and they'll figure things out." ? The massive collapse of the hurricane insurance market for Florida businesses has morphed from an economic headache just weeks ago into a clear and growing threat to the region's economic vitality, experts say. (A ÒcrisisÓ for business in Florida, Miami Herald) Among the troubling signs: ¥ Some sales of commercial property are grinding to a halt. ¥ Business borrowers are bordering on default with their bankers. ¥ Companies are developing plans to create their new jobs elsewhere or move out altogether rather than pay the high cost of operating here. Ultimately, business leaders say, the lack of affordable windstorm insurance could do something no hurricane ever has done to South Florida: produce permanent, crippling economic damage. ''It is a crisis situation,'' said Frank Nero, head of the Beacon Council, Miami-Dade's tax-funded economic development agency. ``This is not just a case of companies making less money. It's not being able to stay here, or expand here, or move here. And that ultimately translates to fewer job opportunities.'' It isn't just a headache for business owners -- much of their higher costs are likely to ripple into consumers' pockets. For instance, Michael Lefkowitz, who owns three Dunkin' Donuts shops in South Florida, had to raise prices when electricity costs soared earlier this year. Now his insurance is going up 60 percent, leaving him with two unappetizing prospects: raise prices again and risk alienating customers or absorb expenses that weren't built into his budget. ''I'll have to see what the market will bear,'' Lefkowitz said of price hikes. ``I may turn away customers who don't want to pay 15 to 20 percent more for a cup of coffee or a doughnut.'' Lefkowitz says the pain is going to get worse, because his landlords are also passing along higher insurance costs. That represents the next phase of the situation, said William Holly, president of Holly Real Estate in Miami. The increases hitting building owners ''won't be felt by tenants until next year because pass-throughs are typically calculated at the beginning of the new year,'' Holly said. Unlike homeowners, who can turn to the state-run Citizens Property Insurance, businesses have no Tallahassee-backed windstorm insurer. Alarmed civic leaders are banding together to beseech Tallahassee and even Washington for relief. The Broward Alliance, for example, is polling its members on their specific problems in order to form a battle plan. ''Is it access? Is it cost?'' said Jim Tarlton, the Broward Alliance executive director. Actually, at the moment it's both -- and more. Some insurers are leaving the state, others are hoisting premiums and some are pushing deductibles to levels that could themselves prove devastating if a business gets damaged. And many business owners worry time is short, the efforts are fledgling -- as the most active period of the hurricane season looms. Secure Wrap founder Radames Villalon is an example. The Miami firm, which provides baggage-wrapping services at airports, saw windstorm deductibles rise from $61,000 last year to a whopping $1.5 million this year. ''I already told them, I'm not going to take this policy,'' Villalon said. But that, in turn, could put him into hot water with his bank, which requires adequate insurance on his mortgage and line of credit. ''I called the bank and told them they have to do something,'' Villalon said. But he is growing weary of dealing with it, and notes there's no compelling reason why he must remain in an increasingly costly South Florida. ''I can do my business from anywhere,'' he said. So can Ted Platon, owner of EuroKitchen in West Miami-Dade. His insurance rose five-fold, but his bank threatened to close his line of credit if he didn't buy it. Because his prices are locked in by long-term contracts -- EuroKitchen outfits the kitchens in luxury high-rise condos nationally -- he can't pass on the higher costs. So he will expand staff at existing operations in Las Vegas, New York and Washington, D.C. ''Those are jobs I won't be adding in South Florida,'' Platon said. Others say commercial real estate -- one of the key components of the South Florida economy -- is being undercut by a lack of insurance. Recently, Ernesto Casal, a principal in Miami's Capital Commercial Group, had a $6 million warehouse deal fall through over insurance. The buyers' windstorm premiums had been expected to be about $50,000. They came in between $150,000 and $200,000. ''Insurance has always been a last-minute thing that came at the end of the equation,'' Casal said. ``It wasn't something that we truly worried about.'' To be sure, businesses had their windstorm problems going into this season. For example, the DeSoto Ocean View Inn in Hollywood suffered $70,000 in damage last year. There was a $10,000 deductible, and the insurer paid only $27,000. So the hotel was in the hole for $43,000 altogether. ''Our rates go up, but is our coverage really better?'' asked Steve Welsch, the manager. Earlier this year, ''insurance costs skyrocketed beyond logic,'' said Alan Ojeda, a developer preparing to start construction on what would be the biggest Miami office tower in two decades. For some builders, it means assuming more risk themselves. Related Group, the biggest condo developer in the country, took out just $75 million in coverage on its new ICON Brickell complex, a billion-dollar project, reasoning that it will only come out of the ground by the time hurricane season ends. Lender HSBC agreed. But next year the developer plans to seek full coverage. It hopes insurers have returned to the market. ''We can't afford a busy hurricane season,'' said Matt Allen, Related's chief financial officer. Developers and builders got a small break Friday when Citizens, the state-run insurance pool, decided to continue writing builders' risk insurance, which covers ongoing construction projects. The potential lack of coverage had caused panic among some builders and developers. Meanwhile, some property owners are ''going bare,'' or simply dropping coverage. Bobbi Zoberg, who owns three strip shopping centers, took this approach after the windstorm tab more than quadrupled. Since she owns these properties outright, she doesn't have to accommodate bankers, and her tenants couldn't afford it if she passed the increases along. ''I can't put all my tenants out of business,'' Zoberg said. Caught in the eye of the hurricane insurance crisis is the banking industry. They require business clients to carry adequate insurance. But many customers say they can't obtain it. Although banks have the right to buy insurance in the client's name, many banks can't find it either. ''Some of our clients are getting 1,000 percent increases,'' said TotalBank President Bill Heffernan. ``The full impact hasn't been felt yet because a lot of policies don't expire until after hurricane season.'' Institutions are struggling for alternatives. Great Florida Bank, for instance, is assessing whether borrowers can self-insure against some damage, or carry less insurance if they keep a higher escrow on deposit. It's a time-consuming effort, ''but it's how you build loyalty,'' said Mehdi Ghomeshi, Great Florida's president. The Florida Bankers Association is heading to Washington next week to lobby Congress for some type of action, possibly a national catastrophe fund. But ''there are no easy answers to this,'' acknowledges Alex Sanchez, chief executive of the industry group. Locally, the Greater Miami Chamber of Commerce has formed a windstorm task force it hopes will become a statewide movement. ''We are looking at what we can do with other chambers in Florida, and look at other states,'' said Barry Johnson, the chamber's president. ``It's clearly an issue whose time has come.'' Businesses have only until midnight Monday to participate in a state survey about the commercial insurance crisis. They should visit the Office of Insurance Regulation website -- www.floir.com -- and click on Hot Topics to take an online survey about the troubles they have been experiencing finding or affording insurance. Business owners as well as insurance brokers, real estate professionals and bankers are frustrated about the lack of near-term solutions from regulators and legislators. ''The insurance department has dropped the ball on this crisis. By the time they finish talking, we could have been hit by a hurricane,'' says Carlos Allen, vice president of Pan American Assurance, a Miami insurance agency. Kristy Campbell, spokeswoman for Gov. Jeb Bush's office, said Wednesday that ''the governor has no plans to call a special session regarding insurance.'' Bush created the Property and Casualty Reform Committee in June, Campbell said, to improve competition and create incentives for insurers to remain in the market. The committee's first report is due Nov. 15. Can Florida wait that long? Ricky Arriola, president of Inktel Direct, is concerned. Arriola heads the Miami chamber's insurance task force. ''At some point, does it become cost prohibitive to stay in Florida?'' he asked rhetorically. ``Then you have employers leaving. You could have real problems.'' ? State Farm Florida will raise homeowner-insurance rates by an average of 52.4 percent under a plan approved Tuesday by state regulators, a much smaller rate increase than it initially sought. (State Farm rate hikes hit coasts hardest, Orlando Sentinel) In exchange for quick state approval, the company submitted a revised request late Monday, just a few weeks after backing away from plans to seek a two-step increase that would have raised rates statewide by 71.5 percent. State Farm Florida, the state's second-largest insurer, will start collecting the higher premiums from new customers Sept. 15 and from existing customers Nov. 1. In Central Florida, increases mostly will be lower than the statewide average. Homeowners in Orange and Seminole counties will see a 5.4 percent increase. Rates will rise 8 percent in Polk County, 10.7 percent in Lake and 16.6 percent in Osceola. Homeowners in coastal counties will get hit the hardest: up to 94.4 percent in parts of Brevard County. Rates will rise 32.9 percent in parts of Volusia County, 38.4 percent in the rest of Volusia. Under the request approved Tuesday, property-insurance rates for condominium owners will rise by a statewide average of 70.2 percent. State Farm Florida's new numbers were close to estimates from the state Office of Insurance Regulation, so state Insurance Commissioner Kevin McCarty approved the rate request. Still, he said he was concerned about its effect on customers. "I am confident the rate we are approving is justified under the law," McCarty said Tuesday in a statement. "But I regret the tough economic choices policyholders may have to make to adequately insure their property." Reinsurance, which is insurance for insurance companies, remains the factor driving State Farm Florida's increase, according to the company's rate filing. After Hurricane Katrina, many reinsurance companies have substantially increased what they charge property insurers, who in turn raise rates for their customers. The exception to higher rates: State Farm Florida customers who get their windstorm coverage from state-backed Citizens Property Insurance Corp. They will see their State Farm Florida premiums decrease, though those customers will see their Citizens windstorm premiums rise under a separate increase from the state's insurer of last resort. Regulators were poised to reject State Farm Florida's plan until the company changed course and lowered its profit-contingency factor and recalculated other costs, said Bob Lotane, a spokesman for the Office of Insurance Regulation. At one point, State Farm Florida had requested a 15 percent profit margin but lowered it to 6.1 percent, he said. State Farm Florida spokesman Chris Neal said the company agreed with state insurance officials to change its assumptions, which led to the company's seeking a lower increase despite higher cost of reinsurance. "The important thing of all this, regardless of how we got there, is these rates coupled with some underwriting changes . . . is going to allow us to remain in the market here in Florida, and that's of course what the goal was," Neal said. Home Prices Outpace Incomes Incomes throughout Florida have failed to keep pace with runaway home prices, according to a study released Tuesday by the Florida Housing Coalition in Tallahassee. (Florida home prices outstrip incomes, Palm Beach Post) Since 2003, median home prices in Florida have soared 77 percent as the real estate boom swept the state, but incomes grew a meager 1.4 percent, according to the study. It's the first of what will become the coalition's annual report on wages and the cost of housing in Florida. "In 2002, the median income made by Florida's families allowed those families to afford median-priced homes," said Michael Davis, executive director of the nonprofit coalition. "Since 2002, each family needs significantly greater assistance compared to what that family needed four years ago to buy a home." One West Palm Beach man doesn't have to read Tuesday's report, called "Florida Priced Out" — he's living it. Jamie Dryer, a 48-year-old consultant for a financial public relations company, is also an experienced securities broker and a former budget adviser to President Ronald Reagan. But even as someone who worked in the White House budget office, Dryer says he still can't figure out how to afford a home in Palm Beach County. The median price of an existing home here shot up to a record $421,500 in November and now hovers around $390,000. That's still out of reach for most Palm Beach County workers, even relatively high-paid professionals. "I am surprised at the lack of outrage by the voting public, and especially businesses, which will suffer unless something is done," Dryer said Tuesday. "It's unacceptable." A Palm Beach Post study last year documented that between 2000 and 2005, the median price of an existing home in Palm Beach County rose 171 percent, but median family income rose only 9 percent. Last week, the Housing Leadership Council of Palm Beach County, a new group formed by the Palm Beach County Economic Council, released its housing needs assessment, showing that 90 percent of the workforce in Palm Beach County could not afford to buy the median-priced home. And shortly before that, the county commission released its own study of housing affordability, citing a severe lack of workforce housing. The new Florida Housing Coalition report, however, is unique in that it offers an interactive Web site where you can calculate the affordability gap for more than 60 occupations in 18 metropolitan areas around the state, including West Palm Beach and Fort Pierce. No Martin County areas are included on the site, www.pricedoutreport.org. The Web site also lets you determine the maximum mortgage that's affordable for each occupation's income, as well as the number of weekly work hours required to afford a two-bedroom, two-bath apartment at market rate. To afford West Palm Beach's median-priced home in 2005 — $390,100 — a worker would need to earn $132,065, according to the report. The median wage in February 2005, however, was only $64,400, according to the report. A worker earning the median income in West Palm Beach could qualify for a maximum mortgage of $190,150. That leaves an affordability gap of $199,950, which is the difference between the maximum mortgage and what the median-priced home costs, the report says. Many local workers, however — such as Dryer, the former White House budget adviser — are forced to rent in Palm Beach County's extravagant housing market. Local workers need to earn an hourly wage of $23.23 just to afford the city's market-rate rent of $1,208. As the Web site shows, though, many occupations don't earn that much. A bank teller in West Palm Beach, for instance, would have to work 84 hours a week to afford a market-rate apartment on her annual income of $23,079. A bus driver would have to work 100 hours a week. In Fort Pierce, where housing is more affordable than in Palm Beach County, that same bank teller would have to work 75 hours to afford the market-rate rent of $1,023, which requires an hourly wage of $19.67. To afford the median priced home in Fort Pierce — $254,000 in 2005 — our bank teller would need to earn an annual income of $85,990, the report shows. There she earns $21,823, however, falling into the affordability gap and out of reach of home ownership. Florida News Notes ? Gov. Jeb Bush appointed a 15-member committee Wednesday to make recommendations on how to curtail increases and remove inequities in Florida's property taxes. (GovernorÕs panel to study inequities in property taxes, Associated Press/St. Petersburg Times) The panel is intended to serve as a bridge between a Department of Revenue study of the same issues ordered by the Legislature and the Taxation and Budget Reform Commission that will meet for the first time in 2007 as required by the Florida Constitution. Bush's panel will focus on property tax revenue increases that have exceeded the rate of personal income growth and unequal tax burdens created by the Save Our Homes Amendment voters added to the Constitution in 1992. Save Our Homes limits tax increases on homesteads - homes lived in by their owners - to 3 percent annually or the growth in the Consumer Price Index, whichever is lower. That has shifted more of the tax burden to owners of newly purchased homes, second homes and businesses. Retired Jim Walter Homes president and chief executive Don DeFosset of Tampa will chair the committee, which initially will meet no later than Aug. 15. It is to present final recommendations in late 2007. ? Gov. Jeb Bush's latest foray into the controversy surrounding Terri Schiavo is raising eyebrows among some state lawmakers. (Bush again in Schiavo dispute, St. Petersburg Times) After conversations with the governor's office last week, the Florida Health Department asked the state Board of Nursing to dismiss a complaint filed in May accusing a nurse of violating state and federal privacy laws by talking about Schiavo on national TV. A state panel of nurses found there was probable cause that Carla Sauer-Iyer, a former nurse for Schiavo, violated patient confidentiality and recommended her license be revoked. Three members of the Senate Health Care Committee question Bush's involvement and the department's reversal. "I guess there's some pressure obviously placed on them to change their minds, and I don't find that appropriate," said state Sen. Nan Rich, D-Weston, referring to the Health Department. "Let's not let politics determine the outcome of administrative complaints." The Health Department should put the public's needs first, said Sen. Dennis Jones, R-Seminole, a chiropractor. "I guess the governor can do what the governor wants to do, but the department has a fiduciary responsibility to the public as well," said Jones, one of nine Senate Republicans who last year voted against a bill intended to prolong Schiavo's life. A Bush spokesman said it is not unusual for the governor's office to discuss controversial cases with the Health Department. ? This was the deal: By 2006, the Legislature would create 110 new judgeships. It would add 55 in 2005, to be appointed by the governor, and another 55 in 2007, to be elected by the people. (Dealing with Jeb, Gainesville Sun editorial) Gov. Jeb Bush appointed 55 judges in 2004, and made no objection to the arrangement for the remaining judgeships. But then Bush sent a letter to the secretary of state saying he thought the elections were unconstitutional - that he should appoint the judges. And last week, the Miami-Dade County Judicial Nomination Committee - made up of Bush appointees - filed a petition with the Florida Supreme Court to block the elections. Coming a week before qualifying, the suit threw anyone's plans to run for the new seats into turmoil. "The unfortunate thing is you've got 55 races, probably 200 candidates, on tenterhooks who don't know where they are at," said John Rayson, a candidate for Circuit Court in Broward County told the Miami Herald. Fortunately, the Florida Supreme Court acted quickly. In a 4-2 ruling Friday, the court let the election stand and simply referred to a 2002 advisory opinion. That opinion was requested by Bush, who wanted to know whether he could appoint someone to fill a vacancy created by a judge's ill health, even though three candidates had qualified to run. The court noted that there were conflicting sections of the Constitution, but deferred "to the clear will of the voters that circuit and county judges be selected by election." As it turns out, a deal is still a deal - even if the Florida Supreme Court has to emphasize that to the governor. ? The state's largest-ever land buy is back on track. The Sierra Club on Thursday thankfully dropped its lawsuit challenging the sale of Babcock Ranch, 92,000 acres of wildlife-rich swamps, prairies and cypress domes in Charlotte and Lee counties in Southwest Florida. (A smart move, Orlando Sentinel editorial) We'd called for the Sierra Club to pull back and get behind the deal, which other environmental groups, the state, a developer and heirs to the ranch painstakingly crafted. It provides for West Palm Beach developer Syd Kitson buying the land, then selling 74,000 acres to the state, which promises to preserve them. Mr. Kitson then keeps the rest of the land, half of which he'll devote to high-density housing, schools and business. The other half he'll keep as green spaceÉBut the Sierra Club needlessly and recklessly imperiled the deal. The organization, which in its march to keep states green often sees issues in black and white, filed suit saying it wouldn't withdraw it unless Mr. Kitson built fewer homes. Indeed, fewer homes are what developers other than Mr. Kitson have been eager to build on Babcock Ranch -- but as part of mini-ranchette developments that would clear far more acreage than would Mr. Kitson. Their vision would guarantee sprawl throughout the countrysideÉOfficials with the Sierra Club would do well to review the combative way the organization approached Babcock Ranch, and explore how a more pragmatic tack could allow it to make more a positive impact. Certainly mending fences with other environmental groups also would help ensure that it remains relevant to the environmental land-use debate. Its litigious approach came perilously close to rubbing out one of Florida's great land preservation deals -- a result that would have been terrible for all concerned.